Historically in Europe, network reliability assessment has been based on the so-called N-1 criterion: in case of fault of one relevant element (e.g. one transmission system element, one significant generation element or one significant distribution network element), the elements remaining in operation must be capable of accommodating the new operational situation without violating the network’s operational security limits. This is an approach which does take into account neither the actual probabilities of contingencies nor actual criticalities of services interruption. This may not be optimal in terms of social welfare.
Today, the increasing uncertainty of generation due to renewable energy integration, combined with the flexibility provided e.g. by demand response and energy storage, call for imagining new, probabilistic reliability criteria with a better balance between reliability and costs.
The management methodologies designed by the GARPUR project encompass the key TSO activities at different time scales that, in turn, ensure coherent decision-making at these respective time horizons, as illustrated by Figure 1:
Figure 1 – Decomposition of reliability management in line with TSOs’ key activities
These methodologies include also mathematical and computational models to i) predict the location, duration and amount of power supply interruptions, and ii) optimize the choice of decisions to manage reliability in the context of these activities.
Five possibilities to improve reliability management of the pan-European power system are to be studied:
- A1. Model the spatial-temporal variation of the probabilities of exogenous threats and take into account the actual criticalities of service interruptions (network faults) in the reliability management,
- A2. Take into account the increased possibilities of corrective actions and their probability of failure in the reliability management,
- A3. Exploit the flexibility provided by demand-side management and energy storage, to achieve the reliability enhancement given the emergence of decentralised renewable generation,
- A4. Explicitly model the impact of long-term planning and asset management decisions on the reliability management during close to real-time operation,
- A5. Explicitly take into account the consideration of low-probability high-impact events, such as the ones originating from extreme environmental conditions, possibly through climate change, or those originating from adverse behaviours of external entities.
After practical validation by the 7 TSOs partners of the project, cost-benefit analyses will be carried out through a prototype Quantification Platform elaborated within the GARPUR project: the impact on the European social welfare of the new reliability criteria, designed following one or several of the above-mentioned possibilities, will be quantified through this platform and compared with the social welfare generated by applying the current N-1 criterion.
Pilot tests of the new proposed reliability criteria are to be performed by TSOs, using this quantification platform. First, a pilot test is to be performed on a pan-European level, using a coarse-grained model of the European cross-border interconnections. Second, pilot tests are to be carried out by one or two TSOs as close as possible to a real life context; these tests are planned to use real system and cost data.
Reliability criteria will be compared and presented to the TSO community, the regulatory authorities and policy makers who will all give their feed-back on the robustness of the results through dedicated workshops.
Dissemination activities of the new reliability criteria are supported by a Reference Group of TSOs and address all the key electricity market stakeholders (TSOs, regulators, policy makers, DSOs, power generators, technology providers). Training sessions designed for allowing TSOs to test the new reliability criteria, by using the prototype Quantification Platform, will be organised at the end of the project.
An implementation roadmap is to be delivered for the deployment of the resulting technical and regulatory solutions to keep the pan-European system security at optimal socio-economic levels.
The activities carried out within the GARPUR project are illustrated in Figure 2.
Figure 2 – Activities carried out within the GARPUR project
Coordinated by Sintef Energy Research, the GARPUR project gathers 20 partners from 12 countries:
- Sintef Energy Research, Norway
- Statnett , Norway (TSO)
- Elia, Belgium (TSO)
- RTE, France (TSO)
- Landsnet, Iceland (TSO
- ESO EAD, Bulgaria (TSO)
- CEPS, Czech Republic (TSO)
- Energinet.dk, Denmark (TSO)
- Reykjavik University, Iceland
- University of Leuven, Belgium
- University of Liege, Belgium
- Aalto University, Finland
- Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
- University of Strathclyde, UK
- University of West Bohemia, Germany
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology
- Technofi, France
- University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany
- Technion, Israel
- Technical University of Denmark
For more information, please visit http://www.garpur-project.eu/.
This article is connected to the related knowledge articles :